PHILOSOPHY

——–Blog’s Objective!; ¡Objetivo; ¡Objectif!——-

“The world will be better off the next decades and centuries. From human rights, environmental awareness to technology, mankind will continue to profit from research, innovation and a renewed dialectical economic pragmatism to solve any arising political trouble. The financial crisis forecast here (just a blip in economic history) is a necessary and brief step for the global markets to be more efficient as stated by Schumpeter’s “Creative Destruction” idea. Yes, markets will become the optimal instrument for a profound ethical and material change and this is good for all!. Don’t Worry, Be Happy. But Beware!” –jcnn– (Find a more detailed explanation of this introductory note at the bottom of this page) 

 

A WORLD WITHOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS!……..POSSIBLE?

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“Today, the cold war has disappeared but thousands of those weapons have not. In a strange turn of history, the threat of a global nuclear war has gone down, but the risk of a nuclear attack has gone up. More nations have acquired these weapons. Testing has continued. Black markets trade in nuclear secrets and materials. The technology to build a bomb has spread. Terrorists are determined to buy, build, or steal one….Some argue that the spread of these weapons cannot be checked–that we are destined to live in a world where more nations and more people possess the ultimate tools of destruction.—– This fatalism is a deadly adversary—– For if we believe that the spread of nuclear weapons is inevitable, then we are admitting to ourselves that the use of nuclear weapons is inevitable...So today, I state clearly and with conviction America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons. I’m not naive. This goal may not be reached quickly–perhaps not in my lifetime. It will take patience and persistence. But now we, too, must ignore the voices who tell us that the world cannot change. “BARACK OBAMA, PRAGUE, 2009. (Taken From “The Economist” Cover Week of April 11th–17th, 2009) 

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Is it necessary to have all the thought currents in mind when forecasting World Economic Events (or crises)?

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Ioniens; Pythagoriciens; Eléates; Atomisme; Académie Ancienne; Péripatéticiens; Sophistes; Cyniques; Hédonistes; Sceptiques; Académie Nouvelle; Ancien Stoïcisme; Moyen Stoïcisme; Nouveau Stoïcisme; Neo-Platoniciens; Scholastique; Humanisme; Cartésianisme; Empirisme; Jansénisme; Idéalisme; Matérialisme; physiocratie; encyclopédisme; Sensualisme; Criticisme; Empirisme; Éclectisme; Évolutionisme; Positivisme; Spiritualisme; Philosophie Réflexive; Idéalisme Subjectif; Idéalisme Objectif; Idéalisme Dialectique; Matérialisme Dialectique; Néo-Kantisme; Utilitarisme; Pragmatisme; Intuitionnisme; Néo-thomisme; Personnalisme; Existentialisme; École Psychanalytique; Positivisme Logique; Phenoménologie; Pyschologie Objective (“béhaviorisme”), Structuralisme.

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The Theory of Knowledge has always been an intrinsic part of any serious World Events Analysis. Science (with Mathematics at the forefront) and perception (Intuitionnisme Logique) play the other two important parts!

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A solid background in Philosophy which has shaped my ideas expressed throughout this blog, complemented with an extense empirical knowledge on the way multinational corporations behave (worked for Beecham International Pharmaceutical Co., Akso Nobel, among others). Also of help has been a profound insight of the intricacies of labor and multi-factor productivity from applied technological tools and its correlated human capital advances, which stemmed mainly from years of being at the helm of an important IT consulting firm at the beginnings of the personal computer revolution (1980s). Underlining all of the above are my studies in management and business economics which allowed me to innitiate, add and compare my ideas with the world most respectable intellectuals’ findings (Many of them Nobel Prize winners) whose theories they are known for.

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THEORY AND PRACTICE, NOTHING LESS TO ADVANCE ON HUMAN KNOWLEDGE, THE ULTIMATE OF GOALS!——-

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——INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY TV & RADIO COMMENTATOR!

—–3 YEARS OF IDEOLOGICAL DISCUSSIONS AIRED ON RADIO WITH THE PRD SENATE
NATIONAL ECONOMY COORDINATORS (2º MOST IMPORTANT POLITICAL PARTY IN MÉXICO’S CONGRESS)! ´

—–FORECAST (RECORDED ON TV, MAGAZINES, RADIO, NEWSPAPERS AND INTERNET) PAST WORLD ECONOMIC CRISES (INCLUDING THE ASIAN AND ARGENTINIAN ONES)!

—–PARTICIPATED IN ROUND TABLES WITH GABRIEL GUERRA, SOLEDAD LOAEZA, RAÚL TREJO DELARBRE. OUTSTANDING ARE THE ONES WHERE MR. PAUL VOLCKER (FORMER US FED CHAIRMAN) AND SEVERAL MEXICAN MINISTERS TOOK PART COMMENTING ON WORLD AND NATIONAL AFFAIRES (SOME STATE OF THE UNION PRESIDENTIAL ANALYSIS INCLUDED)

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My interest in World Financial Markets has its roots on personal life and work experiences originating from the 1976, 1982, 1986 and 1994 Mexican macro-devaluations (most traumatic historic economic events).

EFFICIENT MARKETS HYPOTHESIS & GNOSEOLOGIE!

    

Intellectual Intuition: Does it Exist? Is it possible to know things (when we are trading stocks, bonds, currencies or any financial derivative)through pure research & personal insight that the others do not in order to make a profit?

 

–º–GNOSÉOLOGIE–º–

Étymologie: Formé en utilisant le grec γνωσις, gnôsis («connaissance ») avec le suffixe français -logie (pour désigner unescience). Nom commun: gnoséologie /ɡno.zeo.lo.ʒi/ féminin (pluriel : gnoséologie /ɡno.zeo.lo.ʒi/) (Philosophie) Étudedes fondements de la connaissance; théorie de la connaissance.—Apparentés: épistémologie

La gnoséologie recouvre la traduction exacte de l’anglaisepistemology. En effet, cette branche de la philosophie vise à établir « les conditions, la valeur et les limites de la connaissance », selon la définition donnée par Van Riet.
La gnoséologie apparaît souvent comme un axe transversal d’études sur des thèmes divers portant sur la connaissance humaine. Cependant, à la différence de la critique, elle n’aborde pas de « l’intérieur » les limites du connaissable, mais cherche à décrire de « l’extérieur » les processus d’acquisition et d’élaboration de la connaissance.

Gnoséologie » sur leWiktionnaire: Très proche de l’épistémologie, elle est souvent confondue avec elle. On parle parfois de la gnoséologie comme théorie de la connaissance.

–º–ÉPISTÉMOLOGIE–º–

L’épistémologie est l’étude de la connaissance (du grec épistémê(«connaissance », «science ») et logos (« discours »)). Le “Larousse de la Langue Française Lexis”, Ed. 1979, en donne la définition suivante : “n. f. (du gr. epistêmê, science ; 1906). Philos. Etude, d’un point de vue philosophique, de la science, de ses méthodes, de ses principes et de sa valeur”. En philosophie, elle est souvent définie de façon simplifiée comme “Réflexion critique sur la connaissance”, au même titre que l’Ethique est définie de la même manière comme “Réflexion critique sur l’action et ses conditions”. Le terme d’origine anglaise est attesté la première fois en 1856, et apparaît en 1906dans un dictionnaire français comme « critique des sciences »; c’est-à dire en tant que discipline de remise en question[réf. nécessaire] de la connaissance et des méthodologies scientifiques.
La notion d’épistémologie est généralement comprise de deux manières différentes :
Dans la tradition anglo-saxonne, l’épistémologie est peu ou prou synonyme de théorie de la connaissance, sans que cette connaissance soit réduite à la connaissance scientifique.
Sur le continent, l’épistémologie est le plus souvent comprise comme une branche de laphilosophie des sciences.
La distinction entre ces deux sens n’est cependant pas tranchée. L’épistémologie continentale peut ainsi traiter d’objets non scientifiques[1]. Il s’agit plus d’une différence de degré dans l’attention portée à la connaissance scientifique plutôt qu’à la connaissance générale. 

 

 

 

Financial Trading & Human Behavior!

What makes you move?

If you find this out, then you may have a bigger probability of making money and better yet, not damaging your precious possessions (time, family, friends, health, comfort, etc.) when trying!

know Thyself (Socrates):

The Ancient Greek aphorism ”Know yourself” (Greek: γνῶθι σεαυτόν or gnothi seauton, or σαυτόν with the ε contracted) was inscribed in the pronaos (forecourt) of the Temple of Apollo at Delphi - according to the Greek periegetic (travelogue) writer Pausanias (10.24.1).
Socrates
The saying “Know thyself” may refer by extension to the ideal of understanding human behavior, morals, and thought, because ultimately to understand oneself is to understand other humans as well. However, the ancient Greek philosophers thought that no man can ever comprehend the human spirit and thought thoroughly, so it would have been almost inconceivable to know oneself fully. Therefore, the saying may refer to a less ambitious ideal, such as knowing one’s own habits, morals, temperament, ability to control anger, and other aspects of human behavior that we struggle with on a daily basis. (Wikipedia)

Happiness, Health, Universal Values, Human Rights, Capital Sins and Profits!

——-CAPITAL SINS———–    

Lust (Latin, luxuria)
Gluttony (Latin, gula)
Greed (Latin, avaritia)
Sloth (Latin, acedia)
Wrath (Latin, ira)
Envy (Latin, invidia)
Pride (Latin, superbia)

——-UNIVERSAL VALUES——–

[edit] Psychology and the search for universal values
S. H. Schwartz, along with a number of psychology colleagues, has carried out empirical research investigating whether there are universal values, and what those values are. Schwartz defined ‘values’ as “conceptions of the desirable that influence the way people select action and evaluate events”.[7] He hypothesised that universal values would relate to three different types of human need: biological needs, social co-ordination needs, and needs related to the welfare and survival of groups. Schwartz’s results from a series of studies that included surveys of more than 25,000 people in 44 countries with a wide range of different cultural types suggest that there are fifty-six specific universal values and ten types of universal value.[8]Schwartz’s ten types of universal value are: power, achievement, hedonism,stimulation, self-direction, universalism, benevolence, tradition,conformity, and security. Below are each of the value types, with the specific related values alongside:
Power: authority; leadership; dominance
Achievement: success; capability; ambition; influence; intelligence; self-respect
Hedonism: pleasure; enjoying life
Stimulation: daring activities; varied life; exciting life
Self-direction: creativity; freedom; independence; curiosity; choosing your own goals
Universalism: broadmindedness; wisdom; social justice; equality; a world atpeace; a world of beauty; unity with nature; protecting the environment; inner harmony
Benevolence: helpfulness; honesty; forgiveness; loyalty; responsibility;friendship
Tradition: accepting one’s portion in life; humility; devoutness; respect for tradition; moderation
Conformity: self-discipline; obedience
Security: cleanliness; family security; national security; stability of social order; reciprocation of favours; health; sense of belonging
Schwartz also tested an eleventh possible universal value, ‘spirituality‘, or ‘the goal of finding meaning in life‘, but found that it does not seem to be recognised in all cultures.[9]

    

MARKETS’ PSYCHOLOGY!

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“THE THEORY OF RATIONAL ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS”

Modern Economics is based on Mass Psychology, which takes into consideration many anthropological and sociological factors (among others). Yes we always have to imply a certain degree of subjectivity on economic and more particularly markets forecasting. Central Banks do that all the time and so we should!

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Example (Please click on the link below to read the complete story):

US WITH RISKS OF INFLATION PSYCHOLOGY HIGHER!:

As recently stated by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn (US Central Bank)