MY OPINION (English):

Juan Carlos Nava (My Articles….I’ll publish them later on in English, meanwhile please translate them with google……… I think it’s worthwhile the added effort…I apologize for any incovenience)…Google translate buttons….

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PESO: MÉXICO ¿EN RECESIÓN?

LOS PIBs DE MÉXICO Y DEL MUNDO SIGUEN AL DE EU Europa, Asia, África, Oceanía y América desean que Estados Unidos se recupere de manera..

AGOSTO 29, 2013
ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL:  ¿SUPERMÁN BERNANKE?

ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL: ¿SUPERMÁN BERNANKE?

BERNANKE ¿SUPERHÉROE? Todos los gobiernos, instituciones multilaterales e inversores del mundo siempre esperan escucharlo. Bernanke será..

AGOSTO 29, 2013
PEÑA NIETO Y EL PESO MEXICANO ….¡RIESGOS!

PEÑA NIETO Y EL PESO MEXICANO ….¡RIESGOS!

ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL ….¡LA INCERTIDUMBRE CONTINÚA! La certeza de una recuperación global sostenida desde los años 2008-2009, período..

AGOSTO 28, 2013
ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL Y DIVISAS …. 2013 – 2015

ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL Y DIVISAS …. 2013 – 2015

¿MAYOR RIESGO CAMBIARIO? Si bien es cierto que en las últimas semanas muchos de los principales mercados accionarios han registrado..

AGOSTO 27, 2013

EURO CRISIS : MERKEL Y ESLOVENIA DESPUÉS DE CHIPRE ¿MÁS TORPEZAS?

Juan Carlos Nava ESLOVENIA …¿LA SIGUIENTE? La ira que expresó Angela Merkel después de que el parlamento de Chipre rechazara el primer..

AGOSTO 26, 2013 with 0 COMMENTS

PESO MEXICANO Vs WON COREANO …..¿QUÉ MONEDA ES LA MEJOR?

COREA DEL SUR….¿IMBATIBLE? En los últimos años he presenciado en el centro del país, especialmente en la capital (D.F.), una..

AGOSTO 23, 2013

DIVISAS : BANQUEROS CENTRALES….¿ PELIGROSOS?

GOBIERNOS ¿PARALIZADOS? Ahora que por su alto nivel de deuda la mayor parte de los países ricos (y algunos emergentes) se encuentran..

AGOSTO 23, 2013

DEVALUACIONES COMPETITIVAS : G-20…..¿IMPOTENTE?

¿CAMBIO DE MODELO PARA SALVAR AL MUNDO? Ahora que los ministros de finanzas, banqueros centrales y otros prominentes funcionarios del..

AGOSTO 23, 2013

Artículos de Juan Carlos Nava

VENEZUELA, ARGENTINA… ¿EN GRAVE RIESGO?

LATINOAMÉRICA : PAÍSES EN RIESGO Hace 2 semanas, en un reporte especial, el fondo Monetario Internacional destacó a algunos países de..

AGOSTO 23, 2013

INGLATERRA RECHAZA A EUROPA ¿BIENVENIDA EN AMÉRICA?

INGLATERRA ¿RECHAZA A EUROPA? La semana pasada el Primer Ministro David Cameron, en un extraordinario discurso en Londres, puso sobre la..

AGOSTO 23, 2013

DIVISAS……¡LA GUERRA QUE VIENE!

¿QUIÉN GANARÁ?…¿QUIÉN PERDERÁ? Ahora Japón puso de nuevo el tema de moda, después de que el secretario de finanzas brasileño..

AGOSTO 23, 2013

ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL 2013….¿CÓMO INICIA?

¿MEJOR COMIENZO QUE EN EL 2012? Si nos limitamos a observar los mercados financieros internacionales y nacionales desde la segunda mitad..

AGOSTO 23, 2013
–The Mexican Peso at Risk?….My opinion in the next sections…..Also throughout this “blog” you may want to check my stance regarding the yen, yuan, and the Euro.–
—As I have publicly stated  before (radio, TV, magazines, newspapers, conferences), the biggest problem to the world  from the Chinese Yuan is not the managed depreciation succesfully achieved  until now (which is a a fact and in line with this nation’s government mercantilistic plans ) but….the risk of an eventual macro-devaluation (China being the bubble of the global bubbles), once the productive and financial markets “fatal attraction”  to this utopian economic experiment ends” (socialism, autocracy, and efficient markets never mix for long)……One country, two systems… Absurd! …I don’t want to be misunderstood: China’s people  (1,300 million +) deserve a great place in the world, probably one of the first 5, but before solidly achieving this goal it has to fix some structural problems such as the undeniable lack of democracy and respect for human rights, semi-closed, state-controlled capital markets, ambiguous free trade advancement and doubtful embrace to capitalist ideology (which should mean  an  adamant defense of fair productive competition and consumer sovereignty). This doesn’t mean that social fiscal policies must be stopped from protecting  its people’s well-being but to make them more rational with free markets economics….Finally (an) a straightforward relationship with the international community to achieve political and economic stability all over the world should  help it a lot to get its citizens to reach the GDP per capita they deserve and not the disappointing one they still have these days (notwithstanding the enormous progress accomplished in the last 3 decades!)……One country, two systems… Absurd! …
Please see article below  ****  “China’s Yuan: Hot Money Running Away!..****—
—The “Euro” warning signs are multiplying. Last week they came from two respectable sources, one was the International Monetary Fund and the other from Mr. Soros (who in foreign exchange has an extraordinary reputation, if sometimes a very controversial one. This week another one, that of Mr. Sarkozy (French President) is added to this anxious chorus. Let’s keep ourselves alert to monitor the unfolding of events regarding this currency, which being world’s 2nd most important, the risk implication (do we need more?) to global financial stability is notorious.– ( And you may wish to read the respective articles posted on this same “blog”, thank you. J CNN)—
—-I’m absolutely sceptical that China economy could have a lasting rebound on the recent stimuli packages (though strong they were indeed).
—-But I’m not pessimistic at all with respect to the strength of the UK economy. The pound pounding is (much like the mexican  peso, once due respective size and development differences considered) nothing more than the expression of the global financial…..”Perfect Storm” ???

The fact that Mr. Obama becomes the official leader of the richest, most powerful and ideologically most influential nation (in terms of Democratic Advancement, Immigration Background, Human Capital, Innovation and Corporate Governance) in the World is, incontestably by itself, one of the most wonderful events in Human Rights’ History. Let’s hope he will be up to the awesome task as well, if just? for the sake of global security and a healthier international economic development.—-MR OBAMA: I WISH YOU THE BEST!—

—–

—–Will China’s government decide for us what is “vulgar” in Internet and what’s not? Will Google and MSN react somehow?

PHILOSOPHY

And now Japan, the 2nd richest global super-power has decided to spend a lot of money to try to save itself from this grave systemic financial crisis and its would-be dire effects on the domestic economy  (notwithstanding the fact of already having the highest sovereign debt —250% of GDP among its well-to-do counterparts)  and in coordination with other nations the World’s. —-How will it get out of this mess?

—–G-7, G20 LEADERS: DON’T MESS WITH THE MARKETS!——THEY ARE TOO COMPLEX FOR YOUR PRIMITIVE REGULATORY SKILLS. DON’T MAKE THINGS WORSE! ACCEPT THE BLAME AND “NATURAL EFFECTS” OF THE BUBBLES YOUR ABSURD RULES CREATED IN RECENT YEARS (PERMITTED ARE SOME  LIMITED MEASURES TO SOFTEN THE HUMAN IMPACT OF THIS CRISIS). LET THIS GLOBAL PHENOMENON DISINFLATE BY ITSELF (“CREATIVE DESTRUCTION”, REMEMBER YOUR COLLEGE NOTES?) —–DON’T MESS WITH THE MARKETS G-7, G-20 LEADERS!

MY NEWS SELECTION TODAY:–

—-EURO-ZONE DEFIES FRIEDMAN BREAKUP FORECAST!

—-US GROWTH CONTRACTS, HOME PRICES FALL FASTER!..AWFUL!

—-FED COMMITS $800 BILLION MORE VS CRISIS!..WOW!

—FED’S NEW $800 BILLION PLEDGE:..NO USE?

—CLINTON…OBAMA’S SECRETARY OF STATE?…BRAVO!

—CHINA CUTS RATE AGAIN: JOBS, CIVIL UNREST FEARS?

—-FED’S BENCHMARK RATE: ..MEANINGLESS?..WHAT?

—-IRAN CAN NOW PRODUCE A NUCLEAR BOMB!..GULP!

I’M SENSING A LOT OF CONFUSION AND SEEING  MANY DESPERATE AND PANICKY ACTIONSAMONG THE WORLD’S MOST PROMINENT ECONOMIC POLICY MAKERS. I TELL THEM THIS: STICK AND TRUST TO WHAT YOU HAVE LEARNT IN COLLEGE:RESPECT THE MARKETS WHILE YOU TRY TO SOFTEN THIS CRISIS’ EFFECTS ON PEOPLE(DEFEND YOUR CONVICTIONS VS YOUR BOSSES, THESE BEING MINISTERS, PRESIDENTS OR PMs., CONGRESS OR PARLIAMENT, MEDIA, ETC.OTHERWISE RESIGN) RECOGNIZING THAT THESE ARE TESTING TIMES, THE COUNTRIES THAT ARE GOING TO END UP BETTER POSITIONED FROM IT  ARE THE ONES THAT REJECTED THE SEEMINGLY EASIER BUT ABSURDLY COSTLIER SHORT-TERM POPULIST SOLUTIONS AND EMBRACED STOICALLY THE MOST SENSIBLE ONES. THUS, IF YOU ARE SINCERELY COMMITTED TO SEE THE WORLD OUT OF THIS TROUBLE BUT DOUBTFUL THAT SOME PAINFUL THOUGH RATIONAL COURSE OF ACTION IS THE BEST DECISION TO MAKE, THEN TRUST YOUR ACADEMIC INSTINCTS (INTELLECTUAL INTUITION WE SHOULD SAY AS EMPIRICALLY YOU FACE UNKNOWN DEFYING PECULIAR CIRCUMSTANCES) HOPEFULLY  FOUNDED ON THE ADVANCEMENT OF HUMAN KNOWLEDGE WHICH HAS BEEN THOROUGHLY EMBEDDED EVEN IN YOUR HUMBLEST AND MOST BASIC MODERN ECONOMICS TEXT BOOKS DURING THE PAST DECADES AND….. MAKE THAT DECISION! YOU ARE RIGHT NOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WELL-BEING OF SO MANY HUMAN LIVES. PLAY IT SMART! MARX, KEYNES ARE DEAD AND A WHOLE NEW AND BETTER WORLD IS WAITING FOR US!—- DON’T MESS WITH THE MARKETS!….   J. CNN

—-APEC: MORE MONEY, LESS TRADE BARRIERS VS CRISIS!…BRAVO!

—-CRISE FINANCIÈRE: LES MÉCANISMES DE LA CONTAGION!

OBAMA–VOLCKER, VOLCKER–OBAMA!….OK???

—MÉXICO: ¡SUPER-CARSTENS VS CRISIS!..¡AJÚA!

—MÉXICO: ¡SUPER-CARSTENS VS CRISIS!..¡AJÚA!

CHINA’S GIANT SPENDING PLAN BOOSTED STOCKS, METALS, OIL (THOUGH THEY LATER FELL)!..WOW!–THIS ECONOMY IS IN THE DOLDRUMS. It grew only 9 % last quarter (near its dangerous level of 8% for a big emerging country of this complexity), slowest rate in 5 years, and export orders fell to lowest since 2005. Manufacturing shrank and stocks have lost 66% of their value this year.
—-º—-
Dear Mr. Sarkozy: The 21th century World needs more market freedom, not more regulation. Your present reading is wrong. This Big Global Financial Crisis has been caused by too much government interference of short selling and derivatives (you are “shooting the messenger”) and by supporting inefficient enterprises (US Giant Mortgage  Firms Freddie & Fannie). Currency market intervention(China) is plainly out of place in this new order of things. Free trade of goods and services is a “Must”(Doha), Yes Mr Sarkozy, many Leaders of your generation by being “closet”  protectionists or overly fearful of what they don’t understand, have made the consequences of this crisis bigger than they would otherwise have been and by hysterically crying out for more global rules constraining financial globalization to other “emerging” hysterics you are not helping at all to straighten (the effects) them up but making them worse and longer lasting.Centralized Economy Management will never work.The World is too complex for that: Consumer Sovereignty will and a truly free Global Financial System the only sensible tool we have!——Juan Carlos Nava——-
—–
IMF PROBES CHIEF STRAUSS KAHN!..WHAT?—-US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPS BY RECORD; HOUSING STARTS FALL!——-EUROPE PUSHES FOR OVERHAUL OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM!…WHAT?——CANADA’S HARPER WINS; HARPER WINS!CITIGROUP, GOLDMAN AND 7 MORE BANKS TO GET $125 b!—G-7 FINANCE MINISTERS & CENTRAL BANKERS GATHER VS CRISIS!—GLOBAL RATES CUT!..WOW!..WOW!———-G-7 FINANCE MINISTERS & CENTRAL BANKERS GATHER VS CRISIS!—GLOBAL RATES CUT!..WOW!..WOW!--EUROPE FAILS ON CRISIS RESPONSE—US JOB LOSSES POINT TO THE WORST RECESSION SINCE 1982!..GULP!–US BANK-RESCUE PLAN WINS HOUSE APPROVAL!..WORLD SAFE NOW?-GOLDMAN, MORGAN STANLEY BECOME BANKS, ENDING AN ERA FOR WALL STREET!

China’s Yuan, Euro, Yen:….Insights!

This is a careful analysis of events shaping the “Next Shockingly Big World Financial Crisis”This is not intended to scare you off but to warn you from neglecting financial personal measures to make it more palatable and even to profit from it.This is not the “end of the world is coming” sort of argument but a pourposed explanation of the next step the world is taking to become more efficient.In the past 30 years international financial markets have already survived the 1980’s “third world debt”, 1990’s, European (Soros), Mexican, Asian, Russian (LTCM, Remember), Brazilean and 2000’s Argentinian, Turkish currencies crises. During this period we could also cite the 1987, dot.com bubble, 9/11, and lastly the housing induced credit crises which have been less shocking. Also two relatively big war against Iraq and one vs Afghanistan!In terms of world social and geo-political stability consequences, this time is not going to be any more dangerous from the above experiences even if it will be a little harsher.DEAR READERS:I’M SENSING A LOT OF CONFUSION AND SEEING MANY DESPERATE AND PANICKY ACTIONS AMONG THE WORLD’S MOST PROMINENT ECONOMIC POLICY MAKERS. I TELL THEM THIS: STICK AND TRUST TO WHAT YOU HAVE LEARNT IN COLLEGE: RESPECT THE MARKETS WHILE YOU TRY TO SOFTEN THIS CRISIS’ EFFECTS ON PEOPLE (DEFEND YOUR CONVICTIONS VS YOUR BOSSES, THESE BEING MINISTERS, PRESIDENTS OR PMs., CONGRESS OR PARLIAMENT, MEDIA, ETC. OTHERWISE RESIGN) RECOGNIZING THAT THESE ARE TESTING TIMES, THE COUNTRIES THAT ARE GOING TO END UP BETTER POSITIONED FROM IT  ARE THE ONES THAT REJECTED THE SEEMINGLY EASIER BUT ABSURDLY COSTLIER SHORT-TERM POPULIST SOLUTIONS AND EMBRACED STOICALLY THE MOST SENSIBLE ONES. THUS, IF YOU ARE SINCERELY COMMITTED TO SEE THE WORLD OUT OF THIS TROUBLE BUT DOUBTFUL THAT SOME PAINFUL THOUGH RATIONAL COURSE OF ACTION IS THE BEST DECISION TO MAKE, THEN TRUST YOUR INSTINCTS (INTELLECTUAL INTUITION) FOUNDED ON THE ADVANCEMENT OF HUMAN KNOWLEDGE WHICH HAS BEEN THOROUGHLY EMBEDDED EVEN IN YOUR HUMBLEST AND MOST BASIC MODERN ECONOMICS TEXT BOOKS DURING THE PAST DECADES AND….. MAKE THAT DECISION. YOU ARE RIGHT NOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WELL-BEING OF SO MANY HUMAN LIVES. PLAY IT SMART! MARX, KEYNES ARE DEAD AND A WHOLE NEW AND BETTER WORLD IS WAITING FOR US!—- DON’T MESS WITH THE MARKETS!…. J. CNN

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